As I sit down to write this article, I’ve had the first half of the Warriors Mavericks game playing as background noise (this is the only way I can enjoy Dubs games this season) as I get into some research. I knew I wanted to write something about Luka Doncic, something about how he’s already taken the leap from Rookie of the Year to a player more akin to somebody like Lebron; someone who can drag his team out of the lottery due to his pure talent. Obviously, I already had a very high opinion on Doncic. Somehow the first half of this meaningless game in November raised it even more.
On the opening possession of the game, Doncic collected the jump ball near the three point line, pump-faked and jumped into Glenn Robinson III, securing a foul and earning himself three free throws. It was quick and might seem a bit inconsequential, but it stood out to me for several reasons.
First, most fans would label this “a veteran move” (which is really just basketball jargon used when a player gets away with something cheap or bends the rules a bit). It’s the type of play you’d expect from guys like James Harden or Chris Paul; guys who know NBA refferee’s tendencies and how to trick them. Generally it takes young players some time to adjust to NBA officiating and develop the ability to draw fouls but not Doncic. Early in his second year he’s already attempting 9.4 free throws per game, good for 3rd in the league.
Another veteran element to Luka's game; he already has his signature move. His step back definitely isn't quick but with his height he'll be able to shoot it over most other opposing guards with ease.
Second, Doncic immediately went for this move. Spotlights were still rolling around the court, the Dallas cheerleaders had just finished their pregame routine, a terrifying blue horse/man hybrid (it may have been a mascot who knows) was waving a giant flag around. The game had just started and it was hectic. Doncic wisely took advantage of this. He knew Robinson would be a bit jumpy to start, especially since he would be tasked with stopping him all night. He knew he would still have some adrenaline flowing after all the pregame noise and used that to draw a quick foul, a foul that meant a lot for Robinson. Golden State only had 8 active players tonight so foul trouble was not an option. Picking up a foul five seconds into the game was a nightmare for Robinson and no doubt affected how cautiously he defended throughout the first quarter, one that saw Doncic go for 22/5/5 in just 12 minutes.
The third thing that stood out to me about this move was just that it worked. Doncic gave the slightest of pump-fakes to get Robinson in the air and launched himself straight into him. Now let me be clear, I hate this play. As soon as it happened I shook my head thinking, “the refs are still calling that a foul?” but that’s just the thing though. At just 20 years old (a week younger than I am jeez) Doncic already knows he’s good enough to get these “superstar calls,” because he’s just that. The rest of the NBA is going to have to learn how to deal with that on a nightly basis.
There's always been concerns about Luka's conditioning (he came into training camp at 247 pounds his rookie year prompting one analyst to compare him to a 7/11 employee for some reason) but that hasn't stopped him from being one of the leagues best in the clutch.
We all expected to see Doncic take a leap forward this year but I don’t think anyone expected his improvement to be so drastic. This table highlights how Luka has gone from a future MVP candidate to a current MVP candidate in just one year. One component of this development has been HC Rick Carlisle’s decision to move Doncic from Shooting Guard to Point Guard. This change in position obviously puts the ball in Luka’s hands more often, increasing his usage rating (a stat tracking how often a player has the ball) from 29.6% last year to 34.3%, which is 5th in the league overall. Allowing a second year player to have a usage rating that high really accentuates how heavily the Mavs are leaning on Luka this year. What’s even more surprising is that it’s actually leading to wins.
Last year the Mavs went 33-49, landing them in the lottery once again as the second worst team in the Western Conference. So far this year, they’re 8-5 and sitting in the 5th seed in the West. Some might attribute this success to the addition of former Knicks all-star Kristaps
Porzingis, though he’s started the year of expectedly shaky (18.6/8.9 on sub 40% shooting) following his ACL rehab. Outside of Luka and Porzingis, the Mavs roster is filled with role players so Doncic has had to take on a heavy load. Most young players wouldn’t be able to handle all that he’s been asked to do but he currently leads the team in points, rebounds, and assists as well as every clutch stat there is (3.1 PPG on 42% shooting in the last 5 mins of 10 close games the Mavs have played). Obviously Doncic is not like most young players though.
With the Mavs trending upwards on the back of Doncic’s hot start to the season, don’t be surprised to see his name brought up in MVP discussion already. So far, he’s putting up numbers that even Lebron didn’t achieve in his second year (he put up an incredible 27/7/7 in his second year but played almost 8 MPG more than Doncic) but it’ll be tough to sustain that for the whole year. The NBA season is long and brutal but Doncic has the unique advantage of youth and experience on his side. While most rookies come into the league through the NCAA, Doncic entered with three years of playing in the Euroleague, as well as an MVP award under his belt. I’m sure this is why he’s been able to adjust so quickly to the NBA. This isn’t his first time as a league superstar and he shows it as he sets records night in and night out (just a few hours ago he became the youngest player with back to back 35 point triple doubles, which is a bit of a cherry picked stat but still worth something).
Doncic has been playing professionally since he was just 15 years old and you can really see it in the way he throws passes and uses his change of speed to shift through defenses. You can tell that he had to develop these skills to stand out against more physically gifted players.
Of course, Doncic and the Mavs went on to throttle the Warriors 142-94 tonight. He recorded his seventh triple double (in 13 games) with 3:39 left to go in the 3rd quarter. He only played 25 minutes but scored 35 points (33 of which came in the first half before he was rested in the majority of the second) on 11/18 shooting to go along with 10 rebounds, 11 assists and 3 steals. This comes after he put up 42/10/11 in a win against the Spurs on Monday. Sure, I don’t think Doncic will put these numbers up every night (He won’t have to once Porzingis comes back into form) but even if he cools off a bit he’ll still be putting up historic stats. It’s crazy to think about but Doncic will only continue to improve as well. I think it’s a safe bet to expect him to win multiple MVP awards in the future and he certainly has the potential to challenge for GOAT status one day. Basketball fans everywhere should appreciate that we’re going to get to watch this guy make history for the next decade or two.